Predicted Commencement
An estimate of when a granted-but-not-yet-started scheme will break ground, from the typical gap between grant and commencement.
A planning permission does not become a building site the day it is granted - there is usually a lag while finance, design and contractors are lined up. Predicted Commencement estimates when a granted scheme will start by applying the observed median gap between grant and commencement across thousands of past projects. It is deliberately coarse (a quarter, not a date) and indicative: the spread is wide, and schemes already past their typical start window are flagged as overdue instead.
Timing is everything for a trade. Knowing that a granted scheme is likely to break ground around a given quarter lets you line up your approach before the commencement notice makes it public - and it flags long-granted schemes that have stalled.
PlanningLeads shows a 'Starts ~Q3 2026' (or 'Start overdue') badge on granted, not-yet-commenced leads, computed from the grant date and the modelled median grant-to-start lag.
See it in live data
Common questions
It is a coarse, indicative estimate - a quarter based on the median grant-to-start gap. Individual schemes vary widely, so treat it as a rough sequencing signal, not a promise.
The scheme was granted long enough ago that a typical project would already have started, but no commencement notice has been filed - it may be imminent or stalled.
The gap between grant and start is genuinely wide across the market, so a precise date would be false precision. A quarter is honest.
Related terms
Built for trades, suppliers & installers: Win the work in your county - before your competitors hear about it.
This is a plain-English summary, not legal advice. Planning rules carry conditions and exceptions - always verify a specific case against the official source or a planning professional before acting.